Global food commodity prices are projected to remain low over the next decade compared to previous peaks, as demand growth in a number of emerging economies is expected to slow down and biofuel policies have a diminished impact on markets, according to the latest 10-year agricultural outlook published today by the OECD and FAO.
The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 says that the completed replenishment of cereal stocks by 230 million metric tonnes over the past decade, combined with abundant stocks of most other commodities, should also help limit growth in world prices, which are now almost back to their levels before the 2007-08 food price crisis.
The report foresees per capita demand for food staples remaining flat, except in least developed countries. Additional calories and protein consumption over the outlook period are expected to come mainly from vegetable oil, sugar and dairy products. Growth in demand for meat is projected to slow, with no new sources of demand projected to maintain the momentum previously generated by China.
Growth in meat and dairy production, by contrast, is expected to come from both larger herds and higher output per-animal. Milk production growth will accelerate when compared to the previous decade, most notably in India and Pakistan. It is foreseen that aquaculture would dominate growth in the fish sector and farmed fish production will be the fastest-growing protein source among all commodities analysed in the Outlook.
OECD och FAO förutspår stabila eller svagt ökande priser för mejerivaror under den kommande tioårsperioden. Priset på mjölkpulver väntas återhämta sig något men inte komma i närheten av nivåerna under föregående tioårsperiod. Ost- och smörpriserna har en sämre utveckling men från ett bättre utgångsläge.
Utifrån den här prognosen ser det också ut som om mjölkföretagens situation förbättras. Går priset på mjölk upp samtidigt som fodergrödorna har en något sämre prisutveckling, kommer det gynna mjölkföretagen på sikt.
Results from a global survey on school milk programmes have just been published in a new Bulletin of the International Dairy Federation. This survey provides the most up to date information on school milk programmes and how these have developed since the last survey carried out by FAO in 1998.
Conducted jointly by the Food and Agriculture Organization and the International Dairy Federation, with the support of Tetra Laval, this survey is the largest of its kind in many years. It provides an in-depth look at school milk programmes in the Americas, Asia, Africa, Australia and Europe.
Some highlights of the survey include:
A total of 140 million children benefit from school milk, with around 57% of those receiving it at least 5 days per week.
In 58% of the programmes, children were provided with free milk. In 27% of the programmes, children were provided with subsidised milk.
Major food commodity prices declined again in May, according to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), hitting an almost six-year low as cereal prices fell substantially.The FAO Food Price Index averaged 166.8 points in May, down 1.4 per cent from April and as much as 20.7 per cent from a year earlier.
The Food Price Index is a trade-weighted index that tracks prices on international markets of five major food commodity groups: cereals, meat, dairy products, vegetable oils and sugar. In May, the Index reached its lowest level since September 2009. The May decline was driven by a 3.8 per cent monthly drop in the cereal price index, a 2.9 per cent drop in the dairy price index and a one per cent drop in the meat price index.